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DTZ Research: 2010 European real estate investment volumes doubled 2009 levels to reach EUR 95.9bn
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Investment in commercial real estate across Europe in 2010 reached €95.9bn, representing a 53% increase on 2009 volumes of €62bn, according to DTZ Research in its latest ‘Investment Market Update’ report. European investment volumes are expected to rise by a further 28% in 2011 to €123bn, just below the ten year European average of €125bn.
The report, launched today, reveals that in Q4 2010 investment volumes in Europe reached €30.8bn, a 36% increase on the €22.7bn achieved in the third quarter. The growth in activity during the quarter was supported by an increase in the number of sales over €200m. This has been mirrored by an increase in the average lot size, reaching €32m in Q4 2010 up from €26m in Q3 2010.
Within the major European markets, France and Germany posted the strongest fourth quarter growth in investment volumes, increasing 73% and 42% respectively. In contrast, volumes in the UK rose by just 5% during Q4. Other European markets have recovered in line with the improving economic situation with the Nordics recording above 100% growth in the fourth quarter. Year-on-year investment volumes in the Nordics have risen 153% from €4.6bn in 2009 to €11.7bn in 2010, as a result of significant activity in both Sweden and Norway. In contrast to other European markets, investment volumes fell by 25% in Spain to €0.8bn, with this market still viewed as risky by investors.
Magali Marton, Head of DTZ CEMEA Research, said: “Our latest report shows that within the European markets many investors remain cautious but there have been some recent changes in activity, including a number of speculative purchases registered on prime office assets. Furthermore, we have seen increasing confidence from investors outside of the region with capital flows from outside of Europe growing by 33% during 2010 to €13.7bn. In the short term, we expect inter-regional investors to increase their market share, particularly investors from Asia who invested €1.1bn in the last quarter of 2010”.
Institutions increased their activity significantly during Q4 2010 investing €6.1bn compared to €3.2bn in Q3. Institutions took advantage of their low leverage and availability of good quality assets in the office and retail sectors. Purchasing activity continued to be dominated by private property vehicles, accounting for 40% of activity in the fourth quarter and investing €12.5bn, however, net investment only totalled €3bn.
The office sector accounted for the largest proportion of Q4 activity with €13.4bn invested, representing 44% of total volumes. Retail volumes increased from €7.7bn in Q3 to €9.9bn in Q4 with activity focused on shopping centres, supermarkets and retail parks. Investment in mixed-use assets or portfolios increased markedly over the quarter, rising 106% to €4.1bn (13% of overall activity).
Tony McGough, Global Head of DTZ Forecasting & Strategy Research, comments: “We are starting to see positive signals emerging from the European property market, particularly towards the prime end of the market. Here occupiers are taking advantage of market conditions and repositioning themselves for the recovery, particularly upgrading to better quality space whilst rents are at relatively lower levels. In addition, our recent Q3 2010 DTZ Fair Value Index report highlights an increasing number of European markets are now hot or warm1. Over 2011 we expect to see banks release further stock, including more consensual sales as the barriers caused by swap breakage costs begin to unwind. As a result of these factors, we expect to see renewed investor confidence and an increase in transactions during 2011, pushing investment volumes to €123bn by year end.”
“According to our research data, investment in commercial real estate in Romania in 2010 reached 292.9 million, representing a 138% increase on 2009 transaction activity. There was a significant increase in the number of distressed assets coming to market in 2010, however the market gained more confidence towards the end of the year with the largest transaction totalling €101.2 million.
We estimate that 2011 investment volume will reach between €400-500 mil., representing a 30% to 60% y-o-y increase. Distressed-assets sales, witnessed mainly in the retail sector during 2010, are likely to have an impact on the office sector in 2011. Assets with decentralized locations and a low rate of occupancy will form the bulk of the offer, whilst Bucharest and its established business sectors will continue to be the main target for investors.” commented Cristian Ustinescu, Investments Director, DTZ Echinox.
DTZ is a global real estate services firm with offices in 140 cities and 42 countries (across Europe, Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific and the Americas). The firm provides advice and on-the-ground delivery to investors, developers, corporate and public sector occupiers and financial intermediaries. DTZ works with clients across the breadth of their real estate needs, spanning all real estate sectors and encompassing Investment Agency, Leasing Agency and Brokerage, Property Management, Project Management and Building Consultancy, Valuation, Investment and Asset Management, Consulting, and Research. The parent company, DTZ Holdings plc, has been listed on the London Stock Exchange since 1987.
In November 2002, after 9 years of successful operations on the Romanian real estate market, Echinox Consulting entered a partnership agreement with the multinational company DTZ, one of the leading global real estate services companies. Therefore Echinox Consulting became the local DTZ representative office, operating under the trade name of DTZ Echinox..
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