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King Sturge European Property Indicators Q4 2010 research reveals latest trends in rents and yields

King Sturge European Property Indicators Q4 2010 research reveals latest trends in rents and yields

King Sturge’s latest quarterly European Property Indicators, provides research on prime rents and yields for the three main commercial sectors (office, industrial logistics and retail) covering 26 key locations across Europe. Based on an analysis of economic trends and movements in prime rents and yields, it highlights that: Europe’s uneven economic recovery continues, but the risks of a Euro crisis remain; Occupier markets have stabilised, with London and Paris leading the way in rental growth; Investor demand has improved, but investors remain wary of risks and the limited potential for further prime yield compression.

The research shows that most occupier markets across Europe have stabilised while London and Paris continue to lead the way in terms of rental growth. The office sector has seen the most significant recovery in prime rents with virtually all surveyed cities recording stable or rising rents in Q4 2010.

Available supply will tighten in certain markets across all property sectors, due to the near moratorium on speculative construction over the past two years. For example, London, Paris and Moscow are all seeing an increasing shortage of available grade A offices. In these markets there will be an opportunity for landlords to recycle and refurbish secondary stock and return it to the market in the next two years.
 
Investment activity rose significantly towards the end of the year with Q4 2010 recording the highest investment volume since Q3 2008. Nevertheless, investors remain wary of risk and remain focussed on prime, long-lease assets with strong covenants.

As a result of this, prime yields across all property sectors recorded considerable compression over the year. However, in most parts of Europe prime yields have now stabilised.

Looking back over 2010, Alexander Colpaert, European Research Associate at King Sturge, and the report’s author, said: “On a year-on-year basis, Moscow recorded by far the strongest rental growth in Europe as at Q4 2010, followed by London, Paris and Stockholm. Prime office rents in Moscow increased by more then 40% on the year, while prime high street and warehouse rents moved up by 11% and 9% respectively. Dublin and Sofia recorded the worst rental performance in 2010. The occupier market in Dublin has been severely impacted by the economic crisis. In the year to Q4 2010, prime office rents declined by almost 19%, while prime high street and warehouse rents dropped by 28% and 19% respectively.”

“Investment activity rose significantly towards the end of 2010. According the preliminary figures from RCA, 2010 investment volumes were up by 24% on the year before. Just four of Europe’s top 15 investment market (by size) recorded a decline on 2009 figures. Sweden saw the most significant upturn in investment activity across Europe on the back of strong market fundamentals, with the total transacted volume up by around 240% on 2009. Nevertheless, investment activity across Europe remains well below the peak levels of 2007 with the majority of markets recording a dip between 60% and 80% compared to 2007 levels.”  

Looking ahead this year, Alexander Colpaert predicts that: “In the office and industrial sector one can generally speak of a positive sentiment as market fundamentals are improving, but the retail sector shows a much more mixed picture. Overall, consumer spending is being affected by rising unemployment and government austerity measures. Prime retail centres such as London, Paris and Milan continue to do well although even here any recovery in rental levels is marginal.”

“Occupier demand should hold up across the sectors as the economic recovery continues, albeit at a relatively sluggish pace for this stage of the cycle.”

“Prime office and retail yields seem to have bottomed out in most Western European markets and we expect these to remain fairly stable in the short term. However, certain CEE markets could see some further downward movement as the perception of risk for these markets declines.”

Ben Binns, Senior Associate for King Sturge in Bucharest comments about the Romanian property market: “After a period of much downward pressure on rents across all commercial property sectors there are signs that the significant downward trend has been halted and levels have started to stabilize.  Vacancy in the office sector has started to shrink and limited financing for new construction over the last 18 months has meant the supply/demand balance is starting to even out as take up has started to show signs of strengthening.  Rents have shown a more positive outlook than others in the region including Belgrade, Zagreb, Sofia where downward pressure continues.  We foresee a continued improvement in the warehousing and logistics sector with the arrival of large companies establishing new facilities in Romania testament to this.  The retail market continues to benefit from the continued expansion of the larger international retailers and once substantial pipeline has been drastically shortened the focus remains on prime sites and locations of a sustainable size.

On the Romanian Investment market front, Radu Boitan, Director of King Sturge Romania adds” “We can see a more pro-active attitude towards Romania coming from the institutional investors, expecting to see a more settled political environment, in light of the recent IMF financing approval and severe austerity measures adopted in the public sector.

Although demand has registered an increase, but similarly to other capitals, investors in Romania are also risk-concerned. The large regional investors are analyzing more and more the prime, institutional grade, investment alternatives available in the larger CEE/SEE area, with Romanian market positioned as one of the main economies, while the yields on the more mature markets in the region- as Warsaw or Prague- have compressed substantially in the last 6 months.


The two tier investment market is still easily noticeable, with an uneven investor’s approach towards the prime properties versus secondary, but also between the office, industrial and retail market sectors due to the different economical recovery expectations for the corporate and final consumer markets.”  

Andrew Pierson, Director of the Sofia King Sturge office comments upon the evolution of the Bulgarian market: “The level of supply has greatly increased and this mis-match in supply and demand has caused obvious downward pressure on values. When comparing Sofia to the rest of Europe it should however be remembered that Sofia is fairly immature to more western established markets, and as such is more susceptible to differing market conditions. We are already witnessing an increase from investors and any day now there will be a large investment transaction announced in Sofia. The reason there has been so few is two-fold. Firstly there has been an obvious gap between what foreign purchasers value product here and how it is valued domestically, and there is a need to be more realistic with yield levels if more foreign purchasers are to be attracted. Secondly there is a lack of sellable product. Investors buying into Bulgaria are risk averse and are looking for well leased product with minimum letting voids and this is simply hard to find. This is why office transactions are almost non-existent because there are so few office buildings that are actually well leased. We do expect this to change in the next 12 - 18 months as the buildings completed recently will start to fill up and we should then see a return of the large investors buying here.”

In 2010, King Sturge celebrates 250 years of experience and is now one of the largest international property consultancies in Europe with 42 owned offices in 14 European countries, forming part of a network of over 215 wholly owned, associated and affiliated offices in 47 countries worldwide. Over 3,800 staff throughout these offices cover all property sectors and specialisms including plant and machinery, and residential.

King Sturge began its activities in Romania in 2000 and opened a wholly owned office in Bucharest in 2006. The company offers a wide range of real estate consultancy services, including Property & Asset Management, Investment, Agency, Valuation, Project Management & Building Consultancy.

In Europe, King Sturge operates in the major UK commercial centres and principal mainland European cities.  In Asia Pacific, the firm has associations in Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and New Zealand. In the Americas, King Sturge has business partners in North, Central and South America through King Sturge CORFAC International and ChainLinks Retail Advisors.
 
Through a joint venture with a wealth manager, King Sturge now has a presence in the Middle East. The office will initially be based in Dubai, concentrating on states in the Gulf Corporation Council: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

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