|
| « click pentru a vizualiza toate articolele de la aceasta categorie |
|
|
|
| Adaugat in data de 04-05-2011 |
New European Office Property Markets research highlights better times ahead for the majority of European office markets
Alte stiri la aceasta categorie
King Sturge`s new European Office Property Markets research highlights better times ahead for the majority of European office markets. The survey provides an assessment of relevant macro-economic, occupier and investment trends and includes commentary and analysis of Europe’s most important office markets.
“Economic growth in 2010 provided the necessary platform for a general improvement in Europe's office markets. Modest economic forecasts in 2011 should support continued, but unspectacular growth across the majority of markets and could keep occupiers focused on consolidation and lease renegotiation” comments Emma Jackson, Senior Research Analyst at King Sturge.
Top performing European office markets include London, Paris, Berlin, Warsaw and Moscow which all recorded double digit rental growth in 2010. However, rents have fallen in other markets such as Dublin, Athens and Prague.
Moscow recorded the strongest rental growth over the year at just over 40%, followed by the City of London and Paris at 24% and 15% respectively. In Moscow, prime rents have seen a strong recovery from their trough in late 2009 on the back of rising demand for Central Business District (CBD) office space coupled with an increasing shortage of Grade A space and limited pipeline development. The same can be said for London and Paris where take-up in 2010 and the first months of 2011 has been robust, particularly for large floor plates.
A number of factors should ensure a reasonable outlook for office occupier markets in 2011 including:
The supply / demand imbalance will intensify in some core markets as the supply pipeline remains limited and vacancy rates are set to reduce in most markets over the next year or more. Speculative development is unlikely to return in the short term, with rents low and banks still reluctant to lend. This will result in prime rental growth in the most affected markets.
Economic recovery is expected to continue, though at a slow pace in most of Europe. Western European core markets, such as Germany, UK and France are forecast to achieve modest growth in 2011, with stronger economic growth forecast in the emerging economies, such as Russia, Poland and Turkey. But the outlook remains weak in Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece.
The growth in office-based employment – The outlook for 2011 is generally better than it was last year and this will support office floor-space demand over the medium to long term, although there remain patches of weakness, including Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain and parts of the CEE where the revival in output is not matched by jobs.
“Economic forecasts suggest we will see continued modest improvement in most European office markets” comments Emma Jackson. “Potential hotspots in the short to medium term include the German cities, Bucharest, Budapest and Central London where the highest level of jobs growth is forecast”.
Investment markets
Investor demand in the office sector picked up considerably in 2010, with total volumes, reaching just over €44 billion for the year, up by around 15% compared to 2009. Nevertheless, overall volumes have remained far below the exceptional investment years of 2006-07. The narrow investor focus on the most liquid markets continued in 2010. The UK, Germany and France again recorded the majority of activity, accounting for around 65% of total investment volume.
Overall, investors remain cautious with demand concentrated on prime buildings in core markets. Whilst regions such as the Nordics and Central Europe recorded much stronger investment activity compared to 2009, they remain relatively small investment destinations at approximately 11.4% and 2.3% of total office investment in Europe in 2010.
Looking forward, King Sturge European Research Associate, Alexander Colpaert said that:
"We expect investment activity in the office sector to strengthen towards the end of 2011, following a buoyant 2010. The first signs are good with preliminary figures indicating around €11 billion being transacted in the office sector in Q1 2011".
"Prime office yields are expected to remain stable in the short term in most Western European markets with rental growth likely to be the main driver of capital growth in the short term. This is particularly the case for centres where a supply squeeze is imminent such as London, Paris, Moscow, Warsaw as well as Stockholm and Oslo. Some further downward movement in yields is expected in Central and Eastern European centres as the perception of risk in these markets declines".
Claudia Cetatoiu, Senior Office Negotiator, declares: "In the first quarter of 2011 approximately 55 office transactions were concluded, including relocations, expansions, and pre-lease renegotiations. The total take-up is around 50,200 m2, a 66% increase compared to Q1 2010, the average contracted area being between 400 and 750 square meters. "
"From the total transacted surface, 1,250 m2 represent renegotiations, 3,000 m2 extensions of the current space, 570 m2 pre-leases, the rest being represented by relocations. We mention here the relocations in new spaces, in other buildings, unoccupied before by other tenants. Relocations are based on different reasons: better location, closer to public transportation, better rental terms, insufficient existing space - and I would like to mention here a positive aspect, namely that the demand for relocation enquiries we get at King Sturge no longer comes from companies that downsize their activity, as was the case in 2009. Among the companies that have decided this year to expand their existing space we mention Lidl in Pipera Business Tower, HP in Upground building, Capgemini in Premium Plaza. The only pre-let contract signed so far was carried out by Contrast Management Consulting & Training, which opted for Romana Offices "explains Claudia Cetatoiu.
"Prime rents in the first quarter of 2011 were 19 euro/ m2, but the vacancy rate has dropped to about 16%, compared with 16.8% in Q4 2010" said King Sturge consultant, Claudia Cetatoiu.
She also comments "The main companies that signed leasing contracts in the first quarter are IT companies (Intel, Ortec), services, including pharma (Pzifer, Bristol Myers Squibb), medical (Medicover, CMU), law firms (White & Houses, Wood Oltenasu & Associates) and advertising (Tempo Advertising, Advertising GPD) and FMCG (JTI, Lidl, Cargill). Advertisers are still targeting villas, law firms aim for office buildings (White & Case, Wood Oltenasu & Associates, Wolf Theiss that renegotiated their lease contract in Bucharest Corporate Center).”
"The main areas of interest are the central and north that have attracted most relocations in the first quarter" says Claudia Cetatoiu, King Sturge consultant.
She also added: "We estimate the delivery of 120,000 m2 by the end of the year. New projects were announced to be delivered are Platinum Business and Convention Center, Crystal Tower, Cathedral Plaza and Novo Park G. Among the projects that were announced to be delivered in the following two years other projects we mention Hermes Business Campus, Ann Tower, Raiffeisen Evolution Sky Tower and AFI Business Park. "
"We expect the vacancy rate to reach 10.5% by the end of the year and to restart negotiations for pre-lease contracts in the second half of 2012. The pace in which new the buildings are completed has decreased over the same period last year, when 60,000 m2 were delivered, however when economic situation will start to improve it is clear that we will witness a very low vacancy rate in class A buildings. Frumoasa Office Building, owned by Primavera Development, was the only building delivered in Q1 2011 and comprises approximately 3,500 m2, "says Claudia Cetatoiu.
Looking forward, Claudia Cetatoiu, Senior Office Negotiator, concludes "A positive sign for the Bucharest Office Market are the new entrants such as Intel, that leased 3,500 m2 in Upground building, located on Dimitrie Pompei Blvd. Another promising aspect is that this year the prime spaces will get occupied, new Class A buildings, and developers are aware of this fact and already have new projects in the pipeline, or resume the construction works at the unfinished developments. This will attract new pre-lease contracts starting next year, which will attract the revival of other subsequent markets such as: constructions, building materials, building consultancy etc."
King Sturge is one of the largest international property consultancies in Europe with 42 owned offices in 14 European countries, forming part of a network of over 210 wholly owned, associated and affiliated offices in 45 countries worldwide. Over 4,200 staff throughout these offices cover all property sectors.
In Europe, King Sturge operates in the major UK commercial centres and principal mainland European cities. In Asia Pacific, the firm has associations in Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and New Zealand. In the Americas, King Sturge has business partners in North, Central and South America through King Sturge CORFAC International and ChainLinks Retail Advisors.
Through a joint venture with a wealth manager, King Sturge now has a presence in the Middle East. The office will initially be based in Dubai, concentrating on states in the Gulf Corporation Council: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates..
|
|
| « click pentru a vizualiza toate articolele de la aceasta categorie |
|
| Recomanda aceasta pagina |
| Daca considerati acest articol interesant il puteti recomanda unui prieten folosind formularul alaturat. |
|
|
|
|
