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New European Logistics and Industrial Markets 2011 research highlights market recovery

New European Logistics and Industrial Markets 2011 research highlights market recovery The report provides an assessment of relevant macro economic trends and logistics and supply chain management dynamics in 13 country markets namely: Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, the Slovak Republic, Turkey and the UK.

Occupier demand for logistics is being driven by positive macro economics and changes in supply chain management. Global GDP growth has picked up, world trade growth has gathered momentum and manufacturing output has turned around. In Europe, Germany, in particular, has experienced a strong rebound in economic activity, led by exports from its large manufacturing sector.

Business confidence across Europe is also increasing, particularly in the export-orientated sectors and forecasts suggest a steady improvement in real economic activity across Europe.

King Sturge Research Partner, Jon Sleeman said: “Companies are continually reassessing their supply chains to improve their performance and reduce costs, and the development of efficient warehouse networks is a key component of this.”

“Key supply chain changes include the continuing centralisation of retail distribution, the reconfiguration of inbound supply chains, the growth of dedicated e-fulfilment operations and the growth of ‘reverse logistics’, which requires facilities to handle returns, packaging and waste.

“In addition, mergers and acquisitions between companies typically lead to the re-alignment of supply chains and warehouse networks.”

Whilst economies generally have been improving, occupier demand across Europe is recovering at different speeds.


In the UK, the take-up of new warehouse floorspace in units of 10,000 m2 and over in 2010 doubled compared with 2009;

In Germany, the take-up of logistics property (in units of 5,000 m2 and over) increased by around 40% in the major conurbations.

In France, take-up over 2010 was only 3% higher than 2009, although activity in the Ile-de-France region increased more significantly.

In Central and Eastern Europe, take-up in 2010 in Poland increased by 49%, in the Czech Republic by 106% and in Romania by around 86%.

Looking forward, King Sturge European Research Associate, Alexander Colpaert said that: “We expect market demand and supply to become more balanced and shortages of new and good quality logistics stock will emerge in some locations this year.”

“Developers will continue to focus on build to suit developments, although some may promote speculative developments in well established core logistics markets, especially on sites where they have already secured sizeable pre-lets. ental levels on existing schemes should stabilise and inducements to tenants will reduce.”

“A two-tier rental market will emerge with rents on build to suit facilities being typically higher than those prevailing on existing developments, reflecting build costs and development values.”

Investment markets

Investor demand in the industrial sector picked up considerably in 2010. Some €10.7bn was transacted in the industrial market across Europe in 2010, 55% up on 2009, according to RCA.

Investor interest was strongest in the UK, France and Germany, which together accounted for just over 65% of the total 2010 volume.
Investor demand has remained focused on prime, long let assets with strong covenants.

Reflecting investor demand, prime logistics industrial yields saw considerable compression over the year, particularly in the core Western European markets of the UK, France and Germany.

In Central Europe, prime yields saw some downward movement in the second half of 2010. For example, prime logistics yields in Warsaw, Prague and Bratislava fell by 25, 50 and 75 basis points respectively over the year to stand at 8.25% at the year-end. Over the year the gap between prime yields and poorer quality secondary yields increased significantly as demand for secondary assets increased more slowly than for prime assets.

Looking forward, Alexander Colpaert expressed his view that:
“Prime industrial yields will remain fairly stable in the short-term in most Western European markets but certain Central and Eastern European markets could see further downward yield movement, given the strong levels of investor demand and lower perceptions of risk.”

Irina Iliescu, Senior Industrial Negotiator for King Sturge Romania comments: “For Romania, we believe that new developments of industrial and logistics units in 2011 will still be dominated by build-to-suit schemes, due to financing constraints and new developments limited to pre-lets rather than building speculatively. Rental levels will remain at €4.0-4.25/m2 per month and the vacancy rate will drop very softly from 15% to 14%, considering that besides pre-let transactions, trend for take up will remain more for relocations and less for expansion purposes. Modern stock in Bucharest will reach one million square meters in 2011.”

“Demand in the market will be represented by a few new market entries, most of them coming from the automotive and electronics industry, together with their suppliers and third party logistics.

Appetite will also come from owner occupiers looking to buy industrial land on the A1 highway and in the proximity of Bucharest - considering the price for prime land has dropped with 40% if we compare with 2009.”

“Another sign of recovery for the industrial market is the fact that a few manufacturers who recently entered the Romanian market and already started the construction of their production facilities (to be delivered in 2011): Lufkin Industries and Toro in Ploiesti, Plexus in Oradea, Valeo near Timisoara, Rochling-Automotive in Oarja, Pitesti.”

“We believe that in 2011, the areas of high interest for new industrial developments will be Cluj, Timisoara, Ploiesti, Pitesti and Craiova (areas currently very active in the automotive, electronics and petroleum sectors)”, says Irina Iliescu.

In 2010, King Sturge celebrates 250 years of experience and is now one of the largest international property consultancies in Europe with 42 owned offices in 14 European countries, forming part of a network of over 215 wholly owned, associated and affiliated offices in 47 countries worldwide. Over 3,800 staff throughout these offices cover all property sectors and specialisms including plant and machinery, and residential.

King Sturge began its activities in Romania in 2000 and opened a wholly owned office in Bucharest in 2006. The company offers a wide range of real estate consultancy services, including Property & Asset Management, Investment, Agency, Valuation, Project Management & Building Consultancy.

In Europe, King Sturge operates in the major UK commercial centres and principal mainland European cities. In Asia Pacific, the firm has associations in Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and New Zealand. In the Americas, King Sturge has business partners in North, Central and South America through King Sturge CORFAC International and ChainLinks Retail Advisors.
 
Through a joint venture with a wealth manager, King Sturge now has a presence in the Middle East. The office will initially be based in Dubai, concentrating on states in the Gulf Corporation Council: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The European Logistics and Industrial Market report is the eleventh successive annual report that King Sturge has produced on these markets since 2000. This year’s report includes commentary and analysis of 13 country markets where King Sturge has owned offices namely: Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, the Slovak Republic, Turkey and UK..


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